January 2008 - Volume 26





Mortgage / Real Estate Update Report

Interest rates rising, home sales moderating

By Jim Woodard

Mortgage interest rates are rising and sales of existing homes are stabilizing as we launch into a new year, setting the scene for more “fence-sitting” consumers to take action with their plans to purchase and finance a home, or refinance an existing mortgage before the rates rise to higher levels.

“Stronger consumer spending and an increase in the core price deflater is causing long-term bond yields to inch up, with mortgage rates following,” said Frank Northaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, a major government-sponsored buyer of mortgages. “However, recent data releases suggest there might be further weakness in the housing market and that could allow interest rates do drift back down from time to time.”

Existing home sales rose in November, indicating a stabilization in housing in the wake of mortgage disruptions in 2007, according to a December 31 report from the National Association of Realtors. Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condos and co-ops – rose 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units in November. “Existing home sales should continue to hover in a narrow range, and that's good news because it will be a further sign that the housing market is stabilizing,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.

As we enter the new year, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up to 6.17 percent with an average 0.5 points (fees), according to Freddie Mac. The rate for a 15-year fixed-rate loan is 5.79 percent. Because of emerging factors in the current market, some analysts are predicting 2008 will be a particularly big year for refinancing.



Home prices and sales volume drop further

While mortgage rates rise, home prices continue to drop – a trend that may soon change direction, according to several experts. In October, prices dropped (nationally) by a whopping 6.7 percent from the preceding month. That was the 10th consecutive monthly drop and the largest since early 1991.

“Sales of homes will likely start to rebound this year with price appreciation to follow,” said Patrick Newport, a noted economist with Global Insight, a consulting firm. The sluggish market has impacted the sales of newly constructed homes most severely. New home sales dipped to the lowest level in more than 12 years, dropping 9 percent in November from the previous month, according to a report from the U.S. Commerce Dept.



New laws impact market in ‘08

New federal laws and regulations have created major changes in the mortgage industry. They impact the way lenders qualify borrowers this year, and in some cases will put more money in the pockets of homeowners. The President has signed legislation implementing a law that eases the tax burden for homeowners who have had debt forgiven on a mortgage due to a foreclosure or short sale.

Previously, the tax code required a lender who forgives debt to provide a Form 1099 to the IRS stating the amount the borrower had been forgiven. Then, if the property was sold at foreclosure or was sold for less than what was borrowed, the difference was considered income and subject to be taxed. The new legislation provides a temporary, three-year change to the tax code to eliminate taxes homeowners might face when banks renegotiate the terms of a home loan and forgive a portion of the outstanding mortgage balance. The change in the tax law will cap untaxable forgiven debt at $2 million and apply only to principal residences.

Most real estate and mortgage organizations support the new law. “This bill helps address the subprime lending crisis by preventing strapped homeowners from taking a tax hit to restructure their mortgages and allow them to stay in their homes,” said Brian Catalde, president of the National Association of Home Builders.

The law – Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act – removes the tax burden on mortgage indebtedness, encourages market-based restructuring between lenders and home owners, and discourages foreclosures. The legislative bill also extends the tax deductibility of FHA and private mortgage insurance (PMI) premiums over the next three years. That tax break had been scheduled to expire at the end of 2007. It has been estimated that this bill would give an average tax break of about $350 to taxpayers who pay premiums for mortgage insurance.

Yet another much-publicized plan is to allow modifications of certain mortgage loans or freezing the interest rates for up to five years. “The dream of homeownership should not turn into a family's worst nightmare,” said Richard Gaylord, president of the National Association of Realtors. “The loan modification program is a good first step in helping deserving families keep their home.”



Major FHA changes coming

FHA home loans may soon experience a major revival as a favored type of home financing. Pending legislation would reduce the minimum down payment required (possibly to zero percent) and will increase the maximum amount that can be borrowed.

The FHA Modernization Act has finally been approved by Congress. After a bit of fine-tuning by a conference committee, it will be ready for the President's signature. When signed, it will be the biggest overhaul of loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration in many years, and will serve the needs of home buyers and owners who want to refinance their mortgage much more effectively.

“The bill itself is really very simple, the proposal straightforward,” said Brian Montgomery, with the Dept. of Housing and Urban Development. “It does just what its name suggests. It modernizes the 72-year-old Federal Housing Administration and restores the agency to its intended place in the mortgage market -- nothing more, nothing less. Yet, the impact of this bill may be tremendous.”

One segment of home buyers most benefited from the changes is persons and families living in particularly high priced areas. The new law would either raise the FHA loan limit to $417,000, the current limit for conforming home loans, or the maximum could be tied to the median home price in local regions. Either way, it would make the loans viable for many more buyers and owners, particularly in coastal California and Northeast communities where prices are highest. The required minimum down payment, now 3 percent, would be reduced to zero percent (House version) or 1.5 percent (Senate version). In the House version, the FHA would be able to vary the insurance premiums by applicant risk levels. The more high-risk applicants could pay higher premiums. The Senate version includes a one-year moratorium on a risk-based pricing system. These items will be worked out in a conference committee.



Improved sales activity seen this year

Home sales will finally start climbing again in 2008. That's the most recent forecast from economists at the National Association of Realtors. The projection applies to existing (previously owned) homes. Recovery for newly constructed home sales is unlikely before 2009, it was noted in the NAR report.

“The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. “Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels. The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in home sales, but because sales have been exceptionally low in the final month of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than in 2007,” he said.

 

Existing home sales are projected at 5.67 million units in 2007, the fifth highest on record. That number is expected to rise to 5.7 million in 2008, still significantly lower than the 6.48 million homes sold in 2006. Existing home prices are expected to be down by about 1.9 percent in 2007, compared with the previous year.

“Home price growth in the affordable midsection of the country will help raise the national median existing-home price in 2008,” Yun said. “I then expect price appreciation to return to more normal patterns in 2009, perhaps rising one or two percentage points above the rate of inflation. Even with a modest decline in the national aggregate price in 2007, it's important to keep in mind that nearly two-thirds of the metro areas are showing price increases. The apparent disparity results from fewer sales in high-cost markets. A change in the mix of sales is dragging down the national median home price.”

New home sales are now forecast at 788,000 in 2007, and 693,000 in 2008. Because builders have adjusted production, housing starts will probably total 1.36 million units in 2007 and 1.16 million in 2008, according to the NAR report. On the home financing front, rates for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise slowly to 6.4 percent by the end of this year, with additional cuts in the Fed funds rate lowering short-term interest rates.



Property buyers look at Mexico

A growing number of U.S. citizens are looking across their nation's southern border, searching for a home or investment property in Mexico . “There are now about 1.5 million Americans living in Mexico , and that number is increasing,” said Adrian Arriaga, a Texas-based broker and consultant specializing in properties located in Mexico . “ Mexico is the number one destination choice for U.S. buyers of property in foreign countries.”

Compared with prices of U.S. real estate, properties in Mexico are real bargains, and there are other incentives for buying a property in Mexico . Cities are rapidly developing. Infrastructures have improved dramatically during the past couple of years, and such developments are continuing. Many growth areas offer outstanding opportunities for real estate investors. One of the first concerns expressed by prospective buyers relates to legal structuring of Mexican property purchase transactions.

“Generally, the laws of Mexico regarding the purchase of real property are similar to those of the U.S. ,” said attorney John Vernon. “For example, Mexican law recognizes real estate mortgages and various types of security interests in personal property. Also, in most real estate transactions, Mexican banks can act as escrow agents or trustees. However, there are some differences. When Americans participate in their first real estate purchase in Mexico , they are often surprised to learn that title insurance is not widely available. Foreign purchasers should take steps to ensure they have full title insurance. And there is no widespread use of purchase and sale agreements as such documents are understood in the U.S. ”

It's always a good idea to work with a Realtor and/or attorney in structuring a real property purchase. “The good news for investors is you can own property in Mexico free and clear, easily and forever,” said Dave Ash, author of “The Boom in Mexico Real Estate.” “Having lived here for six years, I am amazed at the changes and modern times that seem to have flooded into this area. Small fishing villages have evolved into modern cities with American-style life and mega shopping centers.”



“Green” in housing becoming popular

People are becoming more environment conscious and want to surround themselves with eco-friendly possessions. That includes their home. Housing experts see this trend as having a major impact the design, construction and decorating of homes in 2008. As energy prices remain high, homeowners are adjusting by adopting green principles to save money. They are creating an eco-chic home that will save money and enhance its value.

Even mortgages are affected by the trend. Major banks are offering “energy-efficient” mortgage loans for homeowners planning green renovations. Home design companies are becoming more environmentally friendly as well, introducing an array of options that allow consumers to go green without sacrificing style or busting their budget.

Many homeowners are taking their passion for interior decorating outside, turning their backyards into exotic environments. Basic pools will turn into tropical oases and outdoor kitchens will rival their indoor counterparts. Gardens will grow into jungles. More people are discovering the benefits of growing their own food. Home-grown produce saves money and is considered more nutritious than store-bought products, and they're consistent with eco-friendly living. Selected furniture will be more likely to reflect advancing technology. From nightstands to coffee tables, new designs include innovations such as dedicated storage areas to hide cables and power strips. The world is changing, inside and outside of the home.



Preparation pays off when selling a home

Preparing a home to be most appealing to prospective buyers is a key element in today's market when sales are generally sluggish. Buyers are out there seeking the best possible home that satisfies their needs and tastes, and sellers need to market their properties. Both parties are most likely to achieve their objective if the house is ready to create a positive impression with prospects inspecting it.

One rather simple but vitally important action is to declutter the house. Nearly all successful Realtors agree with this recommendation. Remove toys, furniture and decorative items that don't enhance the appeal of the residence. Prospects need to see space where they can envision their own belongings. There are an increasing number of professional “decluttering consultants” who can help in this process, but many homeowners can handle the task themselves. Look at your home from the perspective of a buyer.

When planning a remodeling project, keep in mind the baby boomer generation as they move toward old age. Modify your home in a way that will be appealing to this major segment of home buyers. This might include renovations ranging from the simple things like installing levered handle doorknobs (friendly to arthritic hands) to more complex additions, such as installing stair lifts.


 

Jim Woodard writes a nationally syndicated newspaper column on real estate news and trends, carried in about 230 U.S. newspapers – along with freelance features.  Reproduction of this report, in part or entirety, is prohibited without the express permission of the author. E-mail: storyjim@aol.com.


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